Family Predictions… 2012 Outcomes

So, we don’t do a lot of politics here, but occasionally will weigh in on what is going on or an important event.  Today is one of those important events – the US Elections.  I thought it might be fun to ask around a few of my family members what their predictions are going into today and also share a few thoughts of my own.  You will note I have family with widely divergent views to my own, but in the spirit of this great nation, and the true purpose of debate…  “not victory, but progress” – I share a few of them here with permission:

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First, my prediction:

Romney wins in a landslide. All those normal folks who were afraid of the drone slinging pres/gov and would not answer pollsters, actually vote their conscience.  That is, for a smaller, less intrusive government led by a moderate smart successful caring  person, who did what he had to do to get the nomination.  The country moderates back to a post ww2 equilibrium of about 20% fed gov spend of GNP and taxes. Balanced.   This fixes the problem. Yes there are some sacrifices re various worthy spending causes.  But alas, my parents retire with full current benefits, and those of us under 50′, buy into a new social pact whereby we know gov is there for a certain amount, but not for everything we need.  The gen x and later generations have to make the hard choices that the free spending baby boom generation of bill Clinton and our parents did not make.  Instead we focus on personal responsibility, hard work and innovation to get us to the place we need to be as a nation.  No more blaming the past or others for our predicament.

There is a complete rethink in academia…. Ayn Rand was right.  Hayek is the new Jay-z.  As a people, we recall what made us revolt from the British empire and create the greatest nation in history. We will remember Ben Franklin.

This will unleash an unprecedented burst of entrepreneurial activity fueled  by the billions and trillions of money on the sides lines during these dark times.   This will create opportunity for all. Women, Hispanic, Black, American Indian, Asian, all of us will benefit as a result.

Life will be grand.  🙂

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Now my Dad’s – Luke Wallin
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“The president is re-elected by comfortable margins in the popular vote and the electoral college.

The senate and house remain as they were.

In the coming year many republicans copy the strategy of “say anything.” However, it doesn’t work. This causes PhD dissertations to be written on why it worked for Romney but not for others. When the first of these works comes up for oral defense, a faculty member points out that “it didn’t work.” The thesis is rejected and all the others are quietly tossed as new topics are floated.

Chris Christie leads the party back toward moderation. This brings a war with the Tea Party, backed by the Koch brothers. Karl Rove backs Christie. Outcome too close to call.

The NRA HQ disappears in a flash of light.

Somebody said they thought they saw a drone.

What say you?”

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Now my oldest son, Skye Wallin
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“I predict a narrow Obama victory… almost certainly a victory in Ohio.

But he certainly could lose and I don’t pretend that it’s out of the realm of possibility.  Indeed, with the hurricane disruptions of voting in NY, NJ, CN, Obama may lose the popular vote and still win the College.  I hope this isn’t the case.

If Obama loses, it will be a sad thing not because he’s the greatest president, but because it will make cynics out of his supporters and cynics out of the citizens of the world who witness America fire the young man they chose to rescue us from the most catastrophic presidency in history.  People like to say that after 4 years, you can’t blame Bush anymore.  Well, I blame a lot of people and two parties, but Bush changed the world forever and wrecked a lot of things with draconian, expensive policies.

If Obama loses, it says that Americans really don’t have an ounce of patience and give up on promising individuals.  Barack still has lots of potential… after 4 years, I think he has learned what works, what doesn’t, and will approach governance more forcefully in the second term.  What kind of people are we to not even give him the chance to succeed.  As the economy improves, as the occupation of Afghanistan winds down, and as the recovery in Sandy-effected territories gets underway, what kind of sense does it make to fire the Commander?  With all the legislative nonsense that has occurred of recent, I think people blame Obama way too much–Congress is to blame for the vast majority of our problems.

With respect to foreign policy, Obama acts with a restrained neo-conservative strategy full of violence but less stupidity.  He is a scholar of the world with empathy, but unafraid to fire missiles and send in the SEALS…and go to war.  He has adopted responsible Republican tactics, so any argument that he’s soft on terror is entirely cynical and political.

WIth respect to the Supreme Court, it goes without saying that a more liberal court is a good thing.  If you are socially liberal, you understand that the Court is where those decisions get made at the end of the day.  Romney will nominate a smart, but potentially draconian conservative justice with lasting implications for civil rights and other important topics.

In the end, these men are not all that different and to assume there is a fundamental divide just isn’t true.  THe question is, do we fire our guy after his first try?  Just as things seem to be improving?  Or do we throw it all away and let Romney take the credit for someone else’s leadership?

Again, Obama wins Ohio.”

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Whatever your views, if you do not exercise your right to vote you really do not have much of a basis to argue about the outcome.  When all is said and done, I do hope as a country we can try to come together.  That does not mean abandoning ones principles just for unity.  It does however mean, finding ways in which, given the realities of a divided and diverse nation we can come focus on the big problems that need big solutions.  Stop politicizing everything and everyone.  Our nation cannot continue on its current trajectory and expect to maintain or grow our standard of living, our standing in the world or create opportunities for the next generations.  Stop pretending we can leave “as is” the social programs put in place in a different day and age when in fact they cannot continue as is.  That is not political.  Stop spending more than we take in.  That is not political.  Possible?
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There a people out there who are indeed thinking along these lines. I recommend checking out Dave Maney and his recent piece in the Denver Post, and this CLAYTON M. CHRISTENSEN – NY Times piece “A Capitalist’s Dilemma, Whoever Wins on Tuesday”
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Back to the family, exercising our duty as citizens, this morning at 6am at the polling station in Carmel, IN – Anitra and my oldest daughter Sierra (who got to vote for her first time today).  Pretty cool.
  
Well that about sums it up.. the family disagrees.  Do any of you have family members this divergent?  I may add more family predictions here as they trickle in.  Stay tuned…

Serving The Greatest Generation

I came across this opinion piece I published in 2003 in Beverage Media’s Beverage Journals nationally. This was as my role as Chairman of the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America WSWA and was meant to spur debate.

 

” Americans living in assisted living today typically are the only group outside of under 21 year olds who have to “sneak a drink” in a “brown bag”.  These great citizens who have contributed immensely to society and who are used to living a “good life” are underserved.”

 

Thought I’d re-post. Let me know if you have thoughts.

Serving the Greatest Generations by JSW v

The Choice of Ryan

I’m rarely surprised for the better by most politicians these days. Every once in a while, we get to observe a bold move by one that provides hope. Romney’s selection of Ryan falls into this category for me. I will refer to my blog post from February 2010 in which I asked the question – “Is Anybody Series in Washington?” I stand by my post from then.

I will differ with both parties on many issues. In the Democratic platform, there will be a complete lack of seriousness with regard to the size and scope of government and its role in our lives. In the case of the Republican platform, I’m certain there will be far too much government positioning on private social issues that ought to always remain beyond the reach of government (My Libertarian friends will concur). That said, selecting Ryan shows me there can be a serious approach to our #1 problem in the U.S.; that our government has become too big and is unsustainable. Ryan’s plan is no radical plan, it simply slows the growth of spending. I would be in favor of a much more radical approach. Not withstanding the ridiculous political attacks already occurring, I look forward to the clash of ideas as we approach the election.
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Here is a link to the actual House Budget Plan led by Ryan… read it before believing what you hear about it…. http://budget.house.gov/fy2013prosperity/

Is anyone serious in Washington?

Those of you who read my occasional posts know I don’t get into political rants on this blog.  Whilst I do have strong opinions on the state of the world, our country and local communities, I generally don’t find it productive to get into shouting matches online.  I’m primarily an entrepreneur and I do business with people all over the world with many political views.  I don’t see politics as a screen for commerce.  This country and indeed most successful countries are built on the backs of individuals who take risks and build businesses. I feel very patriotic when I start a new business and work to create value for shareholders, employees and customers.  I don’t want the government to help me with my businesses, but I ABSOLUTELY  don’t want them in the way either.  Uncertainty on healthcare and tax policy has caused me to not hire several positions in the past months.  I have instead paid outside firms to do some of the work that would be done by our own employees.  I will continue on this path as long as possible.

Alas, given the current state of the US Budget and the latest one submitted by the Obama Administration, and the general lack of what I would view as seriousness in Washington, I am moved to comment here.  The long term government share of US GDP has now expanded to an unsustainable level and I see no willingness to deal with this by making hard choices.  They call economics the “dismal science” for a reason.  It is about trade offs and choices.  One can’t have it all.  Government cannot simply continue to take productive resources (private) and shift them to largely unproductive uses (government spending) and expect good results.  GOVERNMENT is not the answer, it is a significant part of the problem.  I was one of the independent minded libertarian leaning conservatives who was so upset with the growth in spending in the Bush Administration.

But instead of correcting this course, President Obama and the Congress have actually made it much much worse.  The trajectory is horrendous.  How can anyone who is serious actually think it is okay to support such unsustainable spending and frankly a shift to the next generation of the responsibility to pay for it all.  #LEADERSHIPNOT #FAIL.  Wake up.  The Republicans as a whole don’t “deserve” to be in leadership either based on their record over the past decade, they lost their way.    Bush to his credit did TRY to make Social Security reform a major tenant at the beginning of term II, but he got stopped by his own party and then they started losing elections.  He also did not seem to know how to veto anything and went along with the expansion of government, so he does not deserve any credit here.

There are exceptions.   I was heartened to read about Rep Paul Ryan’s well thought out budget proposal to close the gap.  Here is a clip I found in the Washington Post discussing it:

Rep. Paul Ryan’s daring budget proposal

ryanflips.JPGThe White House’s 2011 budget is only the second-most interesting budget proposal released recently. First prize goes to Congressman Paul Ryan, the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, who’s released a budget proposal that actually erases the massive long-term deficit.

That’s not mere press release braggadocio. CBO agrees (pdf). Under the CBO’s likeliest long-term scenario, deficits are at 42 percent of GDP in 2080. Under Ryan’s proposal, we’re seeing surpluses of 5 percent of GDP by that time….  FULL ARTICLE HERE

My question is (as was asked by one of my friends on Facebook when I posted it on my page)

“Problem is that I haven’t even seen the GOP provide support for it. It’s like they are afraid of it being successful or something. I give props to the guy for actually giving it serious thought and working through a tough proposal. Wish more of our elected officials thought that was part of their job.”

So what gives… why haven’t we heard a lot more about this?  why are the Republican leaders on the talk shows talking about this budget?  Why don’t they get behind it?  Are they?

I say vote out anyone who does not actually work to fix this problem.  Elect only those who actually commit to closing the gap. HERE IS THE PLATFORM:  Shrink spending now, fix entitlements (Yes Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security at the Federal level and Public sector pensions at the State level), get government out of the way.  If you want to “fix” healthcare, shift to a consumer oriented system where we have a direct connection to choices we make and what it costs us.

[Healthcare Aside: I moved our companies to Health Savings Accounts a few years ago and have had great experience with this as a positive factor.  If everyone had HSAs and we created a safety net for catastrophic coverage for all, we would change behavior and create competition in the health market.]

On Entitlements:  You don’t run away from this, actually stand up and run on it.  Create a mandate.   You don’t need to touch any entitlement that is already in action (ie if you are already retired), simply change the deal for all of us who are still working and phase it in.  If you are 60, keep it as is.  If you are 50, you can’t get benefits until 70 years old.  If you are 40 or below, make it 75 and let us invest part of OUR money directly.  Seriously, stop the madness.

Oh, and we are at war with a relentless enemy…

Is anyone serious in Washington?

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